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Showing posts with label 99ers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 99ers. Show all posts

Friday, August 5, 2011

Important links on #GFC2, yes, it corrected BUT ....



This is a much more "fun" blog = has some VERY interesting tidbits on it. Glad these live feeds went up as i sat up until the Eurozone markets opened to see what would transpire after the Asian market "shocks" & was just too tired to keep up .. remember what I said - some correction from the overzealous computer selling would move the market back up - but the movement, folks is headed for the dumps.

www.telegraph.co.uk
Rolling coverage of the rollercoaster in financial markets as the eurozone and US come under increasing pressure to deal with high levels of debt and stave off another recession.





I am on his twitter "FEED". This guy is very good indeed Give it a read if you want to understand the mess neoliberalISM has made and why I am in the bear/crash camp .. he's a truth teller.  I wish I had written this.  Definitely a man worth following .. (and I am very very picky)

www.guardian.co.uk
Richard Murphy for Tax Research UK: States must be courageous enough to bring the world of feral finance under control and back into the real economy

Heavy moments going down and this live blog surely is a "sign" - there is a hashtage #GFC2 (global financial crisis 2) Oh, oh!



www.guardian.co.uk
World stock markets are continuing to fall. Julia Kollewe keeps tabs on the latest movements





Location: Wall Street, New York
Time: ‎6:00AM Saturday, September 17th



http://tambapress.com/planned-layoffs-surge-in-july-challenger/


The early days of the recession were characterized by massive layoffs across industries, and while economists caution that the labor market isn’t there yet, a surge of private sector layoffs in July may indicate that the American recovery is stalling out.
This week has been a worrisome one for economists who monitor the health of the U.S. economy, with mounting signs all pointing in the same direction: For the average American worker, a rebound will not be soon forthcoming. In fact, things seem to be moving in the other direction.
GDP growth is weak; new hiring is not keeping pace with population growth, according to fresh data; and growth in manufacturing — which once lead the recovery — has practically ground to a halt. But most worrisome of all the signs, perhaps, is the return of mass layoffs.
For the past three months, American companies have been cutting their workforce in increasing numbers, according to a new report from Challenger, Gray & Christmas, an outplacement consultancy group in Chicago. In July, the number of planned job cuts surged to a 16-month high of 66,414 — a 60 percent increase from June.
“We’re beginning to see patterns that are disconcerting, and the really troubling part is this: Nothing is happening in the economy which is going to boost job growth,” said Christine L. Owens, executive director of the National Employment Law Project.
The pattern, if it continues, could spell serious trouble for the American labor market.
“What may be most worrisome about the July surge is that the heaviest layoffs occurred in industries that until now have enjoyed relatively low job-cut levels, including pharmaceuticals, computer and retail,” John A. Challenger, chief executive officer of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, said in a statement.
Still, the Challenger report cautions, it’s too early to say whether these cuts are the beginning of a larger trend or just a couple of bad months. More than 50 percent of July’s layoffs were concentrated at just five companies: Merck & Co., Borders, Cisco Systems, Lockheed Martin and Boston Scientific. And as the report lays out, the top three job-cutting companies reduced their workforces for reasons not driven directly by weakness in the economy, but “by factors specific to those companies’ operations.” Borders, for example, “was unable to compete in an increasingly digital landscape, dominated by Amazon.com and Barnes & Noble.”
But other signs suggest the surge in layoffs may have deeper roots than a handful of companies’ need to shed employees. With the exception of slight improvement last week, new weekly unemployment claims have topped 400,000 a week for more than three months — the level generally considered the dividing line between an improving labor market and a stagnant one. Likewise, the number of job openings dropped in June and July, according a firm that tracks online job postings. Another telling piece of the puzzle: The number of temporary workers — whose fortunes are closely watched as an indicator of employers’ future hiring intentions – dipped between May and June, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
If the layoffs continue to increase, Owens said, the effects will be brutal for an already battered American workforce.
“I think that we will see an increase in poverty and a growth in bankruptcies,” she said. Even more worrisome: An extension of federal unemployment insurance for the long-term unemployed, discussed in negotiations in Washington as late as July, was not included in the final debt deal signed into law on Tuesday. Owens said that workers who lost their job in the July cuts and are unable to find work by the end of the year will not have government unemployment benefits to help keep them above the poverty line.
“We’re going to see significant social impact for these workers, their families and on their communities: because the resources that these folks were able to pump back into their communities will be gone,” Owens said. 
Still hunting for a GOOD link on the overzealous, computer-triggered sell offs yesterday correcting, propping up the market temporarily until another MAJOR downward trend.  Between Eurozone partners being unable to work together and the US "recession" there is NOTHING to be optimistic about that I can see.




Sunday, May 8, 2011

Phantom Jobs and Economic Recovery in America: Stephen Lendman

May 8, 2011


By Stephen Lendman
Phantom Jobs and Economic Recovery in America - by Stephen Lendman

On May 6, headlines cheered the new jobs report, New York Times writer Motoko Rich headlining, "Payrolls Show Strong Growth but Jobless Rate Rises," saying:

"For three straight months, the nation's employers have delivered solid job growth, easing some concerns that the economy could be slowing."

Bloomberg.com's Timothy Homan said:

At 244,000, "American employers in April added more jobs than forecast....indicating the world's largest economy is weathering the impact of higher fuel prices."

Wall Street Journal writer Sara Murray wrote:

"Job engine shifts to higher gear (as) companies cranked up hiring in April to the fastest pace in five years...."

In fact, labor force participation held steady at 64.2% for the fourth consecutive month, down from 66% in 2006. Moreover, economist Jack Rasmus estimates 25 million unemployed, a number showing downturn, not growth. He also explained that considerably more workers left the labor force than entered it, saying:

A recovering jobs market "does not experience that kind of massive number of discouraged workers leaving the labor force. Quite the opposite. A truly recovering labor market is characterized by large numbers of discouraged workers re-entering the labor force. Something else is going on here."

In addition, about one-third of new hires are temporary or part-time, jobs paying two-thirds or less than normal pay with few or no benefits. Moreover, another one-fourth are temp agency hires, meaning around one-half of all jobs created are "low pay, no benefit" ones, showing a sick, not healthy economy.

At the same time, initial jobless claims hit an eight-month high, rising to 474,000 for the week ending April 30, the third increase in the last four weeks and a clear sign of job losses, not gains, so what to make of the Labor Department's report. More on phantom jobs creation below.

Other reports also look dire. New Department of Agriculture data show 14.3% of Americans receiving food stamps, a record 44.2 million and rising. Moreover, US Census figures show over 47 million Americans in poverty, more than one in seven but way underestimated.

Even the Census Bureau admits that official thresholds were developed over 40 years ago. As a result, they omit:

-- true rising inflation levels, notably food and energy currently;

-- other expenses like child care, transportation, high tuition and medical expenses; and

-- stagnant or falling incomes in recent years, as well as eroding benefits.

In addition, cost of living levels vary greatly around the country - among regions, between large and small cities, and between urban and rural areas.

For a family of four, the official poverty threshold is an annual $22,350 income, a figure far below reality. For example, a family of four in Peoria, IL needs $42,900 to be above poverty. In Chicago, it's $49,000 and in New York $72,000.

The Bureau also excludes 2.4 million prisoners, elderly residents in nursing homes and other long-term care facilities, as well as students living at school, undocumented immigrants, itinerants, and families or individuals forced to double up for economic reasons. They're, in fact, counted as a single higher-income household.

Last fall, according to David Johnson, the Bureau's Housing and Household Economic Statistics Division head:

"If the poverty status of related subfamilies were determined by only their own income, their poverty would be 44.2%. When their poverty is determined based on the resources of all related household members, it is about 17%."

Income and poverty estimates are also pre-tax, excluding non-cash benefits, partly employer-provided, but diminishing as they shift the cost burden to employees. However, disposable personal income, after income, payroll, sales, property, and other taxes reveals a far higher poverty level than Bureau figures, and a much graver crisis for growing millions sinking below the real poverty threshold.

Moreover, Blacks and Latinos fare nearly three times worse than whites, a shocking underreported reality as well as America's eroding middle class. At the same time, a Deloitte Center for Financial Services report estimates the proportion of US millionaire households will reach 9% in 2011, a scandalous indictment of decades of wealth transfers to America's super-rich already with too much.

Other disturbing data show record homelessness numbers, estimates ranging from 2.3 - 3.5 million Americans on any given night, needing refuge wherever they can find it or face life on city streets.

In addition, experts predict record numbers of home foreclosures in 2011 with about five million owners two or more months behind on mortgage payments. According to RealtyTrac's Rick Sharga, one in every 45 households got foreclosure notices in 2010 when a record one million homes were lost. He estimates 1.2 million repossessed this year, another important sign of economic weakness.

Labor Department (BLS) Phantom Job Creation

Monthly BLS reports mask the weak job picture, including by saying:

"The confidence level for the monthly change in total employment is on the order of plus or minus 430,000 jobs."
In other words, in good times, data may accurately or understate employment growth, but during today's hard times (a Main Street depression), it's mirror opposite.

Moreover, manipulation characterizes BLS calculations, including the so-called "birth-death model" estimate of net non-reported jobs from new businesses minus losses from others no longer operating. During expansions, the model works because start-ups exceed shut-downs. It doesn't in recessions. Yet the BLS assumes employees from non-operating companies are still there. In addition, BLS adds 30,000 jobs monthly whether or not new companies exist.

Economist John Williams reverse engineers monthly employment numbers based on how calculated in 1980. He estimates the "death" side at about 200,000 per month and calls the "birth side" stillborn. As a result, BLS overstates monthly employment figures by 230,000, what later benchmark revisions show, a recent one erasing two million phantom jobs.

Moreover, as calculated, the U-3 headline number omits many people without jobs wanting work, including many long-term unemployed ones who stopped looking after fruitless months of trying. In addition, part-time workers wanting full-time jobs aren't included. As a result, BLS produces meaningless headline numbers, concealing the true employment picture deliberately, especially in hard times to hide reality.

The more accurate U-6 figure is broader, including:

(1) "Marginally attached workers: people wanting jobs but not actively looking in the past 30 days, but have looked unsuccessfully in the last year." This category also includes "discouraged workers" who completely gave up in frustration within, but not exceeding, the past 12 months.

(2) People looking for full-time work but forced to take part-time or temporary jobs to be employed.

John Williams provides the most reliable monthly data on his Shadowstats.com web site. He reports current U-3 unemployment at 9.0% and U-6 15.9%. He calculates the true figure at 22.3%, what he calls his "Official SGS Alternative Unemployment Rate" by adding uncounted long-term (one year or more) discouraged workers to BLS U-6 figures.

Like Williams, economist Jim Fitzgibbon calls the U-3 calculation "worthless," adding, "the entire (BLS) report is seasonally adjusted to be positive, while the non-adjusted data is just awful." That's why BLS conceals it.

In fact, the latest jobs report showed virtually no gain and earlier in the year positive numbers concealed losses. At best, job creation is stillborn, not positive but don't expect official Washington or media pundits to explain.

Stephen Lendman lives in Chicago. Visit his blog site at sjlendman.blogspot.com and listen to cutting-edge discussions with distinguished guests on the Progressive Radio News Hour on the Progressive Radio Network Thursdays at 10AM US Central time and Saturdays and Sundays at noon. All programs are archived for easy listening.

http://www.progressiveradionetwork.com/the-progressive-news-hour/ .
Author's Bio: I was born in 1934, am a retired, progressive small businessman concerned about all the major national and world issues, committed to speak out and write about them. 
 

Friday, April 29, 2011

Posted: 28 Apr 2011 02:13 PM PDT
A pair of recent Gallup Polls shows distinct loss of confidence in the US economy. The first poll shows Americans' Economic Confidence at the 2011 Low. A second poll shows 55% still think the economy is in a recession, or worse.

Please consider Americans' Economic Confidence Declines Further
Gallup's Economic Confidence Index dropped to -39 in the week ending April 24 -- a new weekly low for 2011. This continues a downward trend that began in mid-February. The current deterioration of confidence contrasts sharply with the improving trend found at this time a year ago.


click on chart for sharper image

Optimism About Economic Outlook Drops to 2011 Low

Slightly more than one in four Americans said the economy is "getting better" last week. This measure has been declining since mid-February, and is now at its 2011 low. Far fewer Americans currently feel the economy is improving than held that expectation a year ago, when 41% said things were getting better.



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Just 12 months ago, economic confidence was improving and there was talk of "frugality fatigue." The U.S. saw a sharp spike in spending -- particularly among those with higher incomes -- during May 2010. Things were looking up for the nation's retailers and the economy as a whole until the debt crisis in Europe surfaced.

This year, economic confidence is going in the opposite direction. There is an increasing danger of stagflation as prices surge and the economy slows. As a result, retailers and the economy could find it difficult to match last May's sales performance in 2011.
Survey Respondents Think US Still In Recession

For example, please consider More Than Half Still Say U.S. Is in Recession or Depression
More than half of Americans (55%) describe the U.S. economy as being in a recession or depression, even as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) reports that "the economic recovery is proceeding at a moderate pace."

Right now, do you think the economy is growing, slowing down, in a recession, or in an economic depression?



click on chart for sharper image

Although economists announced that the recession ended in mid-2009, more than half of Americans still don't agree. These ratings are consistent with Gallup's mid-April findings that 47% of Americans rate the economy "poor" and 19.2% report being underemployed.

In another possible disconnect with monetary policymakers, many Americans may not see the trade-off Bernanke suggests between promoting a stronger economy and experiencing higher inflation. Right now, prices are soaring, yet the latest Gallup Daily tracking data show that 67% of Americans say the economy is "getting worse."
Majority Do Not See A Recovery

Is there a recovery? The answer is in the eyes of the beholder. Turn on mainstream media and the answer would likely be a resounding yes. Take a poll of average citizens and the answer is clearly different.

The one bright spot in the Gallup survey is 27% of respondents now think the economy is growing. This is up from 3% in September of 2008. However, there are more who think the US is in a depression than a recession, and more who think the US is a depression than think the economy is growing.

With rising gas prices, rising food prices, falling real wages, and falling nominal wages for many households, it should not be difficult to figure out reasons for declining sentiment.

Recovery is a Mirage

There is no real recovery, at least in any meaningful sense. Unemployment is down, but employment is not up. The economy is finally adding jobs, but at snail's pace compared to any normal recovery.

Mean Unemployment Duration Weeks

'

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If you lose your job, good luck finding another one quickly. You will need it.

Civilian Employment



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Does that depict a recovery? Before you answer, bear in mind that Bernanke estimates that it takes 125,000 jobs a month just to hold the unemployment rate flat.

The only reason the unemployment rate has fallen is 2.3 million workers dropped out of the labor force in the last year alone, smack in the midst of an alleged recovery.

Take away government spending, unemployment insurance, and food stamps and you have a widespread economic depression. Gallup respondents realize that; The average commentator on mainstream media doesn't.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com