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Showing posts with label federal deficit. Show all posts
Showing posts with label federal deficit. Show all posts

Tuesday, August 2, 2011

Ransom Paid By Robert Reich


Monday, August 1, 2011

Anyone who characterizes the deal between the President, Democratic,
and Republican leaders as a victory for the American people over
partisanship understands neither economics nor politics.
The deal does not raise taxes on America’s wealthy and most fortunate
— who are now taking home a larger share of total income and wealth,
and whose tax rates are already lower than they have been, in eighty
years. Yet it puts the nation’s most important safety nets and public
investments on the chopping block.
It also hobbles the capacity of the government to respond to the jobs
and growth crisis. Added to the cuts already underway by state and
local governments, the deal’s spending cuts increase the odds of a
double-dip recession. And the deal strengthens the political hand of
the radical right.
Yes, the deal is preferable to the unfolding economic catastrophe of a
default on the debt of the U.S. government. The outrage and the shame
is it has come to this choice.
More than a year ago, the President could have conditioned his
agreement to extend the Bush tax cuts beyond 2010 on Republicans’
agreement not to link a vote on the debt ceiling to the budget
deficit. But he did not.
Many months ago, when Republicans first demanded spending cuts and no
tax increases as a condition for raising the debt ceiling, the
President could have blown their cover. He could have shown the
American people why this demand had nothing to do with deficit
reduction but everything to do with the GOP’s ideological fixation on
shrinking the size of the government — thereby imperiling Medicare,
Social Security, education, infrastructure, and everything else
Americans depend on. But he did not.
And through it all the President could have explained to Americans
that the biggest economic challenge we face is restoring jobs and
wages and economic growth, that spending cuts in the next few years
will slow the economy even further, and therefore that the
Republicans’ demands threaten us all. Again, he did not.
The radical right has now won a huge tactical and strategic victory.
Democrats and the White House have proven they have little by way of
tactics or strategy.
By putting Medicare and Social Security on the block, they have made
it more difficult for Democrats in the upcoming 2012 election cycle to

blame Republicans for doing so.
By embracing deficit reduction as their apparent goal – claiming only
that they’d seek to do it differently than the GOP – Democrats and the
White House now seemingly agree with the GOP that the budget deficit
is the biggest obstacle to the nation’s future prosperity.
The budget deficit is not the biggest obstacle to our prosperity. Lack
of jobs and growth is. And the largest threat to our democracy is the
emergence of a radical right capable of getting most of the ransom it
demands.





Saturday, July 30, 2011

Social Security and the Deficit (ALSO SEE LINK - FACTCHECK)

Social Security and the Deficit
http://factcheck.org/2011/07/debt-limit-debate-round-up/
Democratic Rep. Xavier Becerra of California said that he would "fight to take [Social Security] off the table" in budget negotiations, because it "hasn't contributed 1 cent to the deficit that we face today, nor 1 cent to any of the national debt, the $14.3 trillion." We take no position on whether Social Security should be cut, but it's wrong to say it's not contributing to the deficit.
Social Security benefits paid were more than payroll taxes in 2010, leading to a cash deficit of $49 billion. For 2011, the Social Security and Medicare Boards of Trustees project a $46 billion deficit. And those figures don't include the billions more the government will have to borrow to cover that reduction in payroll taxes that was in last year's deal to extend the Bush tax cuts.
Twists and Turns on the Debt July 12

Thursday, July 28, 2011

Treasury planning on paying bondholders first if debt ceiling isn't raised

From Bloomberg:
The U.S. Treasury will give priority to making interest payments to holders of government bonds when due if lawmakers fail to reach an agreement to raise the debt ceiling, according to an administration official.

The official requested anonymity because no announcement has been made. The Treasury has said about $90 billion in debt matures on Aug. 4 and more than $30 billion in interest comes due Aug. 15. Overall, more than $500 billion matures in August.
An analogy: this would be like if you skipped paying rent so you could pay your credit cards. Sure, you might get kicked out, but at least your credit rating won't get royally screwed.

This makes sense to me: the Treasury can't keep this from happening, but they'll at least be able to borrow money in the future at low rates. This should prevent a default with the creditors, but it will mean that some pretty hefty cuts will have to be made in government spending, and somebody's going to turn out royally pissed, whether it's Social Security beneficiaries, members of the military, or researchers expecting grant money to work on experiments.

Wednesday, July 27, 2011

Franken's SNL moment on the Senate floor

Franken's SNL moment on the Senate floor

Posted by: Jeremy Herb under Minnesota U.S. senators Updated: July 27, 2011 - 12:46 PM
By Jim Spencer
For a moment Wednesday, Al Franken looked like he was back on the set of Saturday Night Live and not on the floor of the U.S. Senate. In a speech explaining that there would be no money to pay for military and security personnel if Congress doesn’t pass a bill increasing the debt ceiling by Aug. 2, Franken unveiled a large poster in the chamber that said, “Welcome Terrorists.”
Franken aimed his theater of the absurd at those who believe the U.S. doesn’t have to raise the debt limit to avoid economic catastrophe. He couched it as black humor, but certainly not as comic relief in a House and Senate deadlock that economists say puts the U.S. at risk of a financial meltdown. 
“About a month ago, the Bipartisan Policy Center briefed members of the House Republican Caucus on the actual implications of the Aug. 2nd deadline — what we could pay, what we couldn’t pay,” Franken said. “…in the month of August, we could pay our debt interest, Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, vendors for defense projects, and unemployment insurance — and that’s all. 
“. . .no pay for active duty military.  No benefits for veterans.  No federal loans for low-income students about to head off to college in the fall.  No federal government employees, including counter-terrorism agents in the FBI, for example.  No border agents. Now before we default, we would have the time to make this sign. And that’s just the tip of the iceberg.”
Take a look at the senator’s visual aids here (click right arrow to view all 3 pages):
FS

Monday, July 25, 2011

The Bush Deficit

Critics of President Obama never tire of blaming him for today's high deficits. But if blame belongs with one president, it belongs with Obama's predecessor, George W. Bush. The chart above, which the New York Times created based upon figures from the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, illustrates this point very clearly. But it's worth reviewing the history here, because while it's familiar to most of us who follow politics it doesn't seem to get a lot of attention in the political debate.

Sunday, July 24, 2011

Key detail from the collapse of the debt deal negotiations:

Very, Very Telling

Key detail from the collapse of the debt deal negotiations: At the last minute, House Republicans demanded that any deal include a repeal of the individual mandate provision in the new health care reform law, according to the White House.

Who owns America? Hint: It's not China

A close-up look at who holds America's debt.
China yuan dollar 2011 04 27
Dollars and yuan notes. (Stringer/Getty Images)
Truth is elusive.  But it's a good thing we have math.
Our friends at Business Insider know this, and put those two principles to work today in this excellent and highly informative little slideshow, made even more timely by the ongoing talks in Washington, D.C. aimed at staving off a U.S. debt default. 
Here's the big idea:
Many people — politicians and pundits alike — prattle on that China and, to a lesser extent Japan, own most of America's $14.3 trillion in government debt.
But there's one little problem with that conventional wisdom: it's just not true. While the Chinese, Japanese and plenty of other foreigners own substantial amounts, it's really Americans who hold most of America's debt.
Here's a quick and fascinating breakdown by total amount held and percentage of total U.S. debt, according to Business Insider:
  • Hong Kong: $121.9 billion (0.9 percent)
  • Caribbean banking centers: $148.3 (1 percent)
  • Taiwan: $153.4 billion (1.1 percent)
  • Brazil: $211.4 billion (1.5 percent)
  • Oil exporting countries: $229.8 billion (1.6 percent)
  • Mutual funds: $300.5 billion (2 percent)
  • Commercial banks: $301.8 billion (2.1 percent)
  • State, local and federal retirement funds: $320.9 billion (2.2 percent)
  • Money market mutual funds: $337.7 billion (2.4 percent)
  • United Kingdom: $346.5 billion (2.4 percent)
  • Private pension funds: $504.7 billion (3.5 percent)
  • State and local governments: $506.1 billion (3.5 percent)
  • Japan: $912.4 billion (6.4 percent)
  • U.S. households: $959.4 billion (6.6 percent)
  • China: $1.16 trillion (8 percent)
  • The U.S. Treasury: $1.63 trillion (11.3 percent)
  • Social Security trust fund: $2.67 trillion (19 percent)
So America owes foreigners about $4.5 trillion in debt. But America owes America $9.8 trillion. 
For a smart take on how President Obama and House Republicans should end gridlock over debt and deficits,see our new GlobalPost series The Negotiator, which features Wharton's negotiation guru Stuart Diamond.
And to bone up on China's debt — another potentially big global economic headache — check out this interviewwith brainy-yet-coherent Northwestern University economist Victor Shih, who spoke with GlobalPost's David Case.
(More from GlobalPost's Macro Blog: US default watch: Debt deal imminent?)

Thursday, April 28, 2011

Where Has the Spending Gone, Joe Dimaggio?

Posted by Dan Crawford (Rdan) | 4/27/2011 11:13:00 AM
by Mike Kimel

Where Has the Spending Gone, Joe Dimaggio?

Lately there's been a gnashing of the teeth about the deficit and the debt and what to do about it. Democrats point out that when GW took office, there was no deficit, and that a big part of the problem is that federal tax revenues have fallen from 20.6% of GDP in Fiscal Year 2000 to 14.9% in Fiscal Year 2010 (warning - Excel file), and are slated to fall to 14.4% this fiscal year. I found a nice graph here. Despite the nonsense that gets referred to as Hauser's Law, the big fall in tax revenues is is in large part due to the tax cuts, although the poor economy also plays its share.

(Note - so I don't have to keep typing it, all years in this post are fiscal years.)

But for there to be a deficit, tax revenues (whether high or low) have to be less than spending. And spending has also gone up (again see OMB Table 1.2 referenced above) from 18.2% of GDP in 2000 to 23.8% of GDP in 2010, and is slated to go above 25% of GDP this fiscal year. (It is worth noting – federal spending as a percentage of GDP fell in every single year during the Clinton administration… which means Newt Gingrich doesn’t get credit for it unless you believe he had one heck of a time machine.)

I thought it would be interesting to see where that spending is going, so I pulled the data from OMB Table 3.1 and graphed it below. (Dotted lines indicate future projected spending.)

Figure 1

The figure indicates that for the most part, spending in most categories has been pretty flat. Defense spending, though, rose from 3% of GDP in 2000 to 4.3% in 2008, 4.8% in 2010, and is slated to go above 5% this year. Afghanistan, Iraq, and now Libya all cost money, especially if conducted with sweetheart no-bid deals. The bigger ticket category that saw increases was "human resources" - that was 11.4% of GDP in 2000, reached 13.2% of GDP in 2008, and is expected to top 16% this year.

So what are these human resources? I don't have the definition in front of me, but I think that includes things like unemployment compensation, food stamps, and the like. Put another way, some of the spending (it's 3:36 AM right now - I think the "how much" part of "some" has to wait for another post) is happening because the tax cuts didn't work as advertised. But then, its not like that should have been a surprise.

Cross-posted at the Presimetrics blog.

BE SURE TO ACCESS THE PDF EXCEL FILE - a real eye opener !!