USuncutMN says: Tax the corporations! Tax the rich! Stop the cuts, fight for social justice for all. Standing in solidarity with http://www.usuncut.org/ and other Uncutters worldwide. FIGHT for a Foreclosure Moratorium! Foreclosure = homelessness. Resist the American Legislative Exchange Council, Grover Norquist and Citizen's United. #Austerity for the wheeler dealers, NOT the people.



We Are The 99% event

USuncutMN supports #occupyWallStreet, #occupyDC, the XL Pipeline resistance Yes, We, the People, are going to put democracy in all its forms up front and center. Open mic, diversity, nonviolent tactics .. Social media, economic democracy, repeal Citizen's United, single-payer healthcare, State Bank, Operation Feed the Homeless, anti-racism, homophobia, sexISM, war budgetting, lack of transparency, et al. Once we identify who we are and what we've lost, We can move forward.



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Showing posts with label economics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label economics. Show all posts

Sunday, June 17, 2012

State-wide Foreclosure Moratorium: How to get one!


Foreclosure Arrestee (USuncutMN) Asks YOUR help

VIRGINIA DEOCCUPY HOMELESSNESS SIMSONwww.USuncutMN.blogspot.com, scoop.it/Austerity?NO!!

Saint Paul, Minnesota  By now, most are aware that the banks made enormous profits selling junk mortgages.  Inside Job won the Best Documentary award for exposing how the citizens were “played” by the banks and how the executives involved just did not hold themselves accountable for the consequences of their massive fraud. 

Matt Taibbei of Rolling Stone magazine, made powerful comment at Occupy Wall Street on February 23rd in a teach-in as to why we in the United States MUST fight back and demand accountability.  The crisis is far from over. This chart explains why it will take a full four years for the effects to "settle":  It takes time for the entire process to finalize into homelessness!  Let's prevent some trauma!



Because of activist pressure, a mortgage fraud settlement was obtained. The Bank$ter$ were convicted in The Court of Public Opinion.  Obama was forced to act -- because of We the People.  Try to remember that.

But many people are not aware that a minimal payout was made available to homeowners via the States after a lawsuit was brought.

It was an egregious settlement, but it was better than nothing after waiting four long years.

Where is this money?  Sitting in the bankers’ accounts, collecting interest.  Is this acceptable?  We say NO!  In Minnesota, $280 million dollars has been available for six months, but the program is not working.

 We want and  are petitioning for an immediate foreclosure moratorium.  Here's the link.  Right up front:  I am asking YOU to sign!!  http://signon.org/sign/41-million-reasons-for?source=c.url&r_by=260770

I write this in hopes you can learn from our Minnesota experience and grow a viable movement in your own communities.  Only through activism, through public pressure will we get justice. With just a little work, we can get foreclosure moratoriums in all our states if we work together.

What is, Why is and Who are Occupy Homes?

Journalist/activist Dan Feidt writes from a "think global, act local" vantage point: 

What is Occupy Homes?  

Firstly, banks use bookkeeping magic to electronically create money which they lend out to the public & government at compound interest. They don't actually have all that money - only a small fraction. This is called fractional reserve banking. It's intrinsically unstable because the economy can never grow exponentially along with the debt.

Over the last 15 years the Federal Reserve under Greenspan suppressed the prime interest rate, causing an enormous bubble in home prices. Criminal 'control fraud' organizations such as Freddie Mac committed various crimes such as fraudulent inducement, securities fraud, fraudulent conveyance, etc., to bundle mortgages which were likely to collapse as AAA securities. They got fat bonuses and Freddie Mac used its government backing to basically create insurance for bondholders in the event of default, then resold these securities again. In Nov 2011 FreddieMac was forced to pay the federal govt tens of millions $$ for orchestrating staggering securities fraud at the executive level (bundling Alt-A mortgages as AAA etc)

In order to create these fraudulent securities, the banks set up a go-between shell organization called MERS, Mortgage Electronic Registration System, which unlawfully poses as the legal entity with authority to foreclose on people for basically any reason, though it usually doesn't have the mortgage note in a valid chain of title. MERS was used to obfuscate any path to ameliorate housing issues, i.e. you could never even reach the responsible party on the phone, if you could determine who they even were.

Housing prices across the US finally started to crash around 2007-2008. The whole system had been predicated on rising prices which only occurred because the money was magically created thru fractional reserve at suppressed interest rates. As prices fell, thousands of homes had mortgages where the principal demanded exceeded the value of the home - these went 'underwater' as homeowners entered negative equity despite making years of payments. If they quit paying they entered foreclosure, further depressing local prices, a vicious spiral. Today the banks possess millions of empty homes and keep them off the market in order to create the illusion that market prices have stabilized, but in fact price discovery has been halted and 'fake prices' rule the day.

Don’t say the “F” word or else!

In the political system 'regulatory capture' has taken over most levels wherein no official with any kind of power, i.e. Sheriff Stanek, Mayor Rybak, are willing to even say the word 'fraud' and defend the public welfare from organizations that orchestrate these crimes & no decisions are taken in favor of the Little People. The housing court in MN does not offer any redress for fraud or in the case of the Cruz house, bank errors wherein the bank demands an unachievable amount of money for their own mistake.

Therefore a broad network of people have undertaken a direct action campaign to resist the political functions occurring under the regulatory capture such as sheriffs sales and evictions. Through demonstrations and occupying the homes directly, the figures who have the arbitrary power, such as the bookkeeping-magic powered banking industry & the feckless politicians who collect political contributions from the compound interest machine, are forced to let people retain their homes and reduce the principal due on the underwater mortgages, which was never necessary in any sense and was only a lever to consolidate wealth into an ever-smaller group of people.

That's the theory anyway -- the authorities are willing to carry out extreme levels of state violence to maintain momentum in the regulatory capture & control fraud system which prevails today.

People who care are forced to join Occupy Homes because:  

The US federal government sent the Banksters $13T, the entities which created this mess.

What did the Banksters’ do with their welfare?   It didn’t direct money to solve title problems, it gambled the trillions on more toxic debt around the world.

Experts such as Ellen Brown urged full redress.  She and others suggested a massive settlement that left the banks feeling the sting -- along with the restructuring of banking itself.  Too Big To Fail meant Too Big To Manage.  The FRAUD was seen as systemic.  Robosigning/liar loans and the scourge of adjustable rate mortgages were to be abolished - whether by regulation or the imposition of State banks.

Instead, the AGs in the US accepted a bandaid rather than rehab to the heavily-bleeding victims, the taxpayers and shareholders.
.
Hopefully - in the name of fairness -  local registrar of deeds and local judges will slap Banksters hard, because elected officials - many owned by Banksters and who could conceivably slap them - haven’t: and logic dictates, won’t.

And in the urge for fairness, it would seem that banks that participated in fraud should not be collecting interest on the monies paid out for VICTIMS. But they are; that’s how State banking "regulation" is not working these days.  Make a fraudulent attack on the public: Get paid for it.

So we say that each state should demand a foreclosure moratorium until the allocated money is allocated, and the programs for relief have been proven to work.   

San Francisco set up a precedent. What We say is that this should go through each state, where the money is, through the Attorney Generals' offices.  So far that has been done only at the local level and to continue that as a strategy would take years.

To see for yourself who that was done, here is some excellent video on the San Francisco experience provided by Carol Harvey.  A video is worth 1000 words; share her videos with people that care.  

Learn and then maybe we can get mortgage foreclosure moratoriums in each state, and as we suggest, working through our Attorney Generals.

Some of us get arrested occupying foreclosured homes, because we think the actions over the last four years are just plain shameful.   I am one of those cases - and I wanted to stand in solidarity with other occupiers.  So I am "guilty" of trespass - with an explanation!   Below is an "explanation" of what I am doing while I await a hearing.

Here are action steps ACTivists can take

Take this idea and this article to your next Coffee Party gathering.  (We have another one here in Saint Paul on July 7th.)  Take this to moveon.org and your #ows General Assemblies.  Take it to your church.  Take it to your union local.  Take it wherever people w/social justice concerns gather. Some won't hear you, but keep working it.  No one said life doesn't have its struggles.  You may need to remind yourself of that often, but the good responses on a daily basis will keep you buoyed.  We are rocking boats, talking, trusting and building a truly caring movement.

It is important to remember, that at each step, you need to reach out to more and more people to gather enough people to get a foreclosure moratorium.  If people around you don’t understand what you are doing, just keep doing each step.  Trust me; we're after a winnable action.  More people will begin to support this idea as you go along.  Precedent has been set already!  ; )

And then devise an action plan that includes the following:
 
Plan a screening of the following two – Inside Job is available on Dvd, and the Matt Taibbei video is easily accessible on youtube .  (See links above.)  Even a couple of people watching this together can began to have a massive effect on how things go in your state after solidifying their commitment.  There are good homelessness videos coming out now, too.  Tip:  Start a video/youtube collection right away -  in early days.  Get some good photos of homeless persons together too. You may need them later.  Or be bold - go and make a video of your local foreclosure victims and homeless people and then post it on facebook.  Suggest this as a "group activity" for your initial contacts .. Look for and build a community spirit.  Sometimes media committees get a bit ruthless. Cooperation is key to success and this is the time to aim for that.  Include everyone who wants to be included in media efforts.

Go to www.propublica.com and find out how much money your state has been allocated for foreclosure relief.

Get an appointment with your Attorney General – and find out the amount the office says is on their books and has not been distributed.  Be prompt and cheerful and loaded with facts and an attitude of compassion for foreclosure victims and homeless people when you go in.  Know that public policy can be changed by YOU – you can make a difference, a very big difference.  It's not a tea party nor an action.  It is an information session at which YOU make a sensible request that will save time, money, social havoc and heartache.

Ask for them for a foreclosure moratorium! until the money IS released and the program has been proven to work.  Offer to petition citizens showing that the population is on their side if they do that.  Going city to city would take a very long time. 

Write a petition.  You can use moveon’s site, change.org, care2.org's petition site -- or any other that you’ve already linked up.  You can even post on all available  lists.  Be sure to mention the amount and give references to it as well as the propublica site.  Include a person’s email to return the names of signatories.  You don’t need addresses, or phone numbers from signatories on many of these, which will expand the base of those who will sign.  But be sure to get email addresses.  Tip:  About out-of-state signatories.  Go for it!  This is grassroots organizing at its finest and friends who will back you and your group up, get them on board! Show that this is truly an international issue.  Just aim for a higher number of signatures than you think you will need so that if their names are "disqualified" you have plenty.  Let this snowball by spreading it around.  I am so chuffed by my readers who have signed, that it makes my eyes tear over. They do care ...

Create a FB “cause” – click it around a bit to your friends and good Occupy sites on the web.  Go to Occupy Homes and other sites and post it around.  We call that clicktavism.

Write an action alert, a 3-paragraph inspirational piece to send out to your occupy websites.  Just be sure to include the petition link, a place to contact and perhaps a reference or two to show you do kinow what you are "speaking" about.

Make hard copies and 

Start asking for signatures at food coops, your social justice actions, in ordinary conversation.  Forward your link to all your FB and twitter friends.  Ask them to get involved and figure out ways you can work together.  I’ll be outside our homelessness show here in Saint Paul this Tuesday, clipboard in hand with plenty of pens and maybe a small sign saying “You can help end homelessness.  Please sign my petition.”  You can put flyers up on coffeehouse and coop bulletin boards - just be sure to pick them up or give a place to forward them to - maybe the Attorney General's office directly.

Think up talking points in advance:  Writing a blurb for your petition to hand out to those that sign will help you focus your thoughts. Points such as this are incredibly helpful: 
1. Foreclosure causes BLIGHT – it brings in crackhouses, whore houses, boarded up windows, rodents  – and

3. Homelessness hurts.  You might mention that for every homeless person, there are 24 empty houses now (Yikes!) One in seven people is homeless.  Here in MN, the average of a homeless person is .. wait for it! .. six years old!  One in four homeless persons is a veteran.  BREAK those stereotypes!  Most of the homeless are children. People who are homeless are not easy to “deal with”. They are wounded and hurt - and often desperately poor. Sometimes, things get so bad, you really cannot predict what an ill homeless person will do and they become scary.  That doesn’t mean that we, as humane persons don’t do everything we can possibly do to help them.  Remember we are asking for monies and programs for people who were victims of FRAUD. The kids didn't sign .. The best way to stop homelessness is to prevent it. That is what we are doing w/this foreclosure moratorium campaign; trying to prevent it.

4. You might also mention that those of us who fight back and try to get the media to write about the outrage get arrested, but the fraudulent bank$ter$ do not.  In fact, the media and policos lionize bank$ter$ – turning them into rock star status.  Here we see Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan Chase wearing Presidential cufflinks.  After four long years, we are seeing precious little accountability for banksters' FRAUD.  Here is the article about the foreclosure victims arrests. 
5.  Our media and CONgress are not acting in the public’s interest, but this is a preliminary step in gaining accountability and helping victims for now .. you get the idea.  Only our pressure can change public policy. This is why the settlement was achieved. Public pressure.
6. Have people go to www.propublica.com for information if you are asked for verification. That’s so easy!

7. Stay current on issues so you have plenty to talk about.  Obviously, the foreclosure moratorium is just a bit of the solution to our corrupt and highly unregulated banking system.  The articles abound and it can be very difficult to know which to read, which to omit – but struggle on nevertheless.  Find a good author in “the know” and subscribe!  You can run a google alert and get regular, fresh information by the buckets.  Just put in “foreclosure”, “activism” or whatever strikes your fancy, and it will lead you to good, fresh and in-depth articles.  www.webofdebt.com and www.dandelionsalad.wordpress.com are two of my very favorite websites with economics about foreclosure.  So is www.nakedcapitalism.com.  There is also econtv.com for those who want punchy videos.

Give a donation – food, money, office help, your bodily presence – to a foreclosure occupation. Talk to the people, attend the barbeques, speak to your minister about hosting a teach-in on homelessness, the foreclosure crisis, about ACTivism.  Go visit a homeless shelter; see first hand how demoralizing the environments are that your tax dollars are paying for.  Get angry that homeless children are fed bad food, denied educational opportunities most take for granted and wonder where they will sleep that night. Thank those who volunteer their time in the most needed activity: helping the homeless.  The best "gift" you ever give anyone is your time as you can never get it back.

Understand me – I am on the side of COMPASSION.  No one should be made homeless.  Housing IS a human right; so is our personal property. So is the right to expect our governments to take our concerns seriously. Rhode Island has a Homeless Bill of Rights now..  An era of #austerity is being proposed. We need to work to ensure we don't have more unhoused, demoralized people.

Remember: this is a political struggle.

Over the months I have been fighting foreclosure, I have seen a most disturbing criminalization of dissent.
  – an overmilitarization of police and private security forces Say FRAUD loud and clearly. This is not a handout.  This was a decision made to quell opposition that was getting loud as President Obama and the other politicos tried to sweep our legitimate anger under the rug.  Banks got bailed out; we got sold out - to the tune of $17 trillion dollars.  We are not criminals; we are people striving for justice.

Our foreclosure fighters at occupations are beaten and sexually abused, denied medications, fed drugs by police (the DRE program), their belongings tossed into dumpsters (illegal!) - and the bail amounts continue to escalate. 

It is easy to stay wound up and lose focus.  This is not an effort to “get arrested” nor rant about “state power” the entire time.  We need a good, firm CENTER, a mass of support to win even basic justice.  Civil disobedience is a personal choice. 

But a petition drive – backed up by phone calls, oped letters, national actions - can help us drive up the necessary numbers to build a movement to stop foreclosure once and for all.

Write opeds, post comments – even to the teensiest of local papers. Educate, agitate, ORGANIZE.   Offer your email address as a contact point. People will show interest, but they need direction.
We are getting precious little Good Press.  Try to find a media outlet that will explain WHY Occupy Homes exists.  Therefore: When a paper posts articles, post comments.  Say clearly - "This has all been about fraud and we must not blame the victims nor their supporters."

Continue to educate yourself.  Example:  look at how companies are enriching themselves buying up HUGE lots of foreclosed properties, getting city permissions. Know that without our ACTION, nothing is going to change and more misery is the inevitable result.

Notes about the foreclosures and homelessness – TRAUMA and our priorities

Many of us foreclosure activists are homeless.  For me, this time, it was huge overdraft charges on an account for which I had never signed for an overdraft. I’ve been homeless nine months.  But TCF Bank got $100’s in overdraft charges on a $1.88 overdraft because I had direct deposit on my disability check.  They ruined my credit –and after nine months, have never even sent me a bank statement saying how much they CLAIM I still owe. 

I was a  holder of a mortgage in Ontario and lost my house way back in 2006, They wouldn’t pay up when my husband got ill, even though I had insurance.   I had paid $46,000+ in CASH, and didn’t even get eight months of residency.  I lost $25,000 on the sale of the house besides.  I was framed.  Now I have moved more times than I care to remember.  It just never seems to stop.

I am 63, disabled, widowed and orphaned.  This homelessness hurts!  In these nine months, not one of three counties have helped me.  The indignities I suffer would make for an entire book.  Too many places to stay has made me even more traumatized; the doctor(s) say so.  I stay sane by … you guessed it!  … fighting back. 

Articulation of our pain should be taken seriously - particularly the pain of homeless children.  We must speak up for those who are inarticulate, invisible, disabled, too young to speak for themselves.  Advocacy is a talent and a gift when it comes to these issues, particularly right now as right-wingers point fingers at victims.  One more time:  the bulk of the homeless are children.  We are speaking for them.

 Many frontline poverty workers are not helping out in ways that work, although they see the consequences of destroyed urban areas – and increasingly the devastation growing in the suburbs.  Make sure you see that empowerment of ourselves is paramount.  Suffering needs to be listened to and then acted upon.  Don’t further victimize the homeless.  Listen with three ears open.  And _just _stay _active _yourself.
Don’t join the chorus that’s been set in motion:  Victims are NOT to blame
Homeless people are deeply traumatized.  And foreclosure victims’ wounds are close to the surface. They are grieving people.  Each day is a trial.  Try to help them; not judge.  You wouldn’t want to be walking in their shoes.

Yet they are more traumatized as their efforts to empower themselves are met with scorn, derision, brutality, and harassment on the part of City Councils, cops and media. I could give a hundred more links of this part of the "story.".  Cops are not living in foreclosed communities in the cities. City Council members are taking money from banks and corporations to win elections; many are not standing with the tax-paying citizens who are fed up.  Don't allow the coverup!
Meanwhile, the foreclosure relief money continues to sit in accounts, not being used, unless We make something about public policy change.  Public policy should not be made in backrooms, bars and restaurants by bank$ter$ and politicians sharing drinks and lobster.  Our mayor actually locked his door, but continues to meet with those who want to subsidize a nearly $1 billion stadium!  But, doubtless our din gets on his nerves and we continue to say:  We will be back!

We can win this!  We can “like” it.  We can “tweet” it.  We can “share” it. We will win with your own particular, special help involved.  You cannot stop the power of a Great Idea.

I can be reached at USuncutMN@gmail.com.  Tell me how your Action Plan proceeds. 

This is permanently archived at: http://bit.ly/MXjPP1

Our Minnesota petition can be found here:  Please! Sign it!  Use it as a template for your State.  Many blessings as you help prevent more homelessness - and stand w/the afflicted.



Friday, March 30, 2012

Livable4All quicklinks




2012 May 3-5 Toronto - BIEN Congress
See BIEN blog for International Basic Income News
Alberto Cottica - Basic Income as Innovation Policy - Feb. 2012
Basic Income - An Idea to Bring Stability to our Economies - Dec.2011 
Germany - Pirate Party with Basic Income Platform wins 15 seats - Dec.2011
A Basic Income Grant for paupers and vagabonds - NZ Dec.2011
Policy Options Article on Manitoba Mincome pilot project Sept 2011
A Town With No Poverty - 2011
Latin America: Income Security For AllCanadian Senator Hugh Segal on Poverty and guaranteed income (youtube)
The Economics of PROUT (video 2011)
Technological Unemployment - 2011
Through the eyes of a benefit advisor (UK)- 2011
Economic Growth Won't Save Us (IE) - 2011
What is Money - Podcast 2011
Occupy Wall Street Forum on Basic Income - 2011
BINews - OWS sparks BIG Interest -2011
RB Blog - Parsing the Data and Ideology 'we are the 99%'-2011
Favorites
Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. advocates guaranteed income
in his 
1968 book Chaos or Community.
Audio of MLK's speech on youtube -
Getting paid in our Jobless Future - James Hughes 2003
Embrace the End of Work - James Hughes 2004 The Coming Swarm Economy - Rick Falkvinge - 2011Feeding the World is Easy - Colin Tudge (audio)Economic Foundations and Environmental Progress (video 2010)Is the Financial System One Giant Pyramid Scheme? - 2010Bailout for the People Richard C. Cook - 2009Extraordinary Discourse - weekly podcast 2011Separating Survival from Work - Jim Smith 1996In Praise of Idleness - Bertrand Russell 1932
Operation Basic Income - Anonymous 2011
Anxiety Culture 
Livable4All Channel on Youtube
Around the World
ScotlandThe Future of Social Security Policy: Women, Work and
A Citizens Basic Income
 
(book on Basic Income by Ailsa McKay)
Germany
Pirate Party & Basic Income - 2011
Make way for the Pirates - 2011
Grundeinkommen 

German translation of Martin Luther King Jr.
on Guaranteed Annual Income
European Anti-Poverty Network
(guaranteed adequate minimum income)
European Union - GLI
Belgium
Vivant

Automation
Technological Unemployment - 2011
Robotic Nation - Marshal Brain Manna - Marshal Brain Getting paid in our Jobless Future - James Hughes
Embrace the End of Work - James Hughes

Thinking Out Loud (basic income in last paragraph)

Helen Keller: Put your husband in the kitchen 1932
"is it too much to expect that our ingenuity can reorganize our economic system
to take advantage of the machines which we have created?...
if [men] are unable to accomplish the task, we women shall have to send them
into the kitchen for a few lessons in common-sense economics."
See also articles section 

Audio
The World Owes You a Living - 6 CD audio collage challenging the work ethic and the harm that it has caused and advocating guaranteed income.

Video

Interviews with Jacque Fresco (Future by Design)
Green Party Leader Canada -
Archbishop Desmond Tutu on Basic Income -
In Debt we Trust -
Guy Standing on Working TV
(note: even though he is a founder and co-chair of the Basic Income Earth Network, he does not directly mention basic income in his 40 min. speech)
Women and Guaranteed income
Ending Women's Poverty Forum:
Sharon Yandle in segment six, talks about guaranteed livable income. 2004
Related Topics
E.F. SchumacherThe Canadian Clearances: CBC Ideas (no longer online - PDF catalogue - Jan. 4, 06)
Challenges the idea of "productivity" and how small farmers are being pushed off the land.
Winston Churchill on Land Monopoly

Family Allowance (none) - US
 
South Park Episode 1303 Margaritaville
(comic lesson on banks and economics)
Jobs vs. Life
Nowtopia
 

Full Enjoyment not Full Employment
 

"we have no desire to work a single hour producing stupid, useless junk, and that all production needs to be re-examined from the standpoint of our real needs and desires" 


Work is a Four Letter Word
 - Alan B.

Chronic Stress and Coping with Denial

The World Owes You a Living
 (A labyrinthian site full of images, poems & writings and scathing and humourous critiques of the scourge of the "job." See links, what is productiveparasites, otheressays.)

Monday, October 24, 2011

Public and private banks have reached a modus vivendi

Mutually assured existence

Public and private banks have reached a modus vivendi



“INDIA is where China was ten years back,” says Mr Kamath, chairman of ICICI. That is certainly true by size. India’s GDP amounts to about a quarter of China’s today and its banking industry just a tenth. But in at least one respect India is well ahead: it has several dynamic privately owned banks that over the past decade have taken a fifth or so of the market from the state-controlled banks. Until the financial crisis in the West the private banks seemed to offer a template for the entire industry: within a decade or two, it seemed, the state would retreat significantly. Now India’s mixed model of banking is likely to persist for longer.

Part of that reflects the fact that India had its own wobble during 2008. This was not a full-blown crisis; indeed, Aditya Puri, chief executive of HDFC Bank, the second-biggest (and perkiest) private firm, says to describe it that way would be an “appalling misconception”. But there was a sharp spike in money-market interest rates after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, a liquidity squeeze and a notable shift in deposits. At ICICI overall deposits, as well as the stickier category of savings and current-account deposits, dropped by about a tenth between June and December 2008. Savers shifted their cash to the government-controlled banks, which were perceived to be safer. “Money was pouring out of our ears,” says Mr Bhatt of State Bank of India.

That experience has helped prompt a change of strategy at ICICI, which for a long time was one of the most admired private banks in the developing world. After a decade of spectacular growth, fuelled in part by wholesale funding (including bulk deposits), the bank recently slammed on the brakes. In 2009 its loan book shrank by 17%.
Chanda Kochhar (one of several female bank bosses in India), who took over as chief executive from Mr Kamath last year, says that the bank decided to focus on changing its funding mix towards retail deposits because as interest rates rise these should be cheaper as well as stickier than wholesale funds. Current and savings deposits now make up 42% of total deposits, up from 27% before the crisis. Private banks so far lack the state banks’ huge branch networks, but they are working on it. ICICI now has 2,000 branches, against only 755 in early 2007. That should help it suck in more deposits.

The state banks may hold on for a while yet to the market share they have taken. Between June 2007 and December 2009, after a long period of genteel decline, they saw their share of total deposits and loans rise from 73% to 77%. After years of fierce competition from the private banks, they have begun to get their act together. At State Bank of India’s headquarters in Mumbai visitors may still receive a smart salute from a man in uniform, but, Mr Bhatt says, its technology and products are now “comparable to the private sector”. Mr Kamath agrees that the state banks have caught up on technology.

Learning to love state banks

Yet even if the private banks do go back on the attack, attitudes towards the state-controlled banks have changed for good. After all, they were the ones that continued to supply credit to the economy during the downturn. Before the crisis all banks were expanding their loan books at an annual rate of about 25% (see chart 6). After mid-2008 there was a big divergence, with the state banks (which come in three main flavours: the nationalised banks, State Bank of India and the regional rural banks) keeping credit growing fairly steadily. The private banks more or less ground to a halt. The foreign banks went from expansion to sharp decline, with their share of loans dropping from a peak of 7% to a paltry 5.3% last December.
Most bank executives now also concede that old-fashioned regulation was shown to have its merits. Indian banks are required to hold a big slug of their assets (typically just under a third) in government bonds and at the central bank. Now Western regulators too are considering pushing up liquidity levels. Indian bankers joke that all the fiddly rules they face have become the envy of regulators throughout the world.

All this has led to a reappraisal of whether state banks should be fully privatised in the long term. HDFC Bank’s Mr Puri says that “the world has changed and the view around here has changed.” Mr Kamath takes a similar view, predicting that in the new circumstances “India’s evolution will be more or less in line with China’s.” Mr Bhatt reckons there will be “no big-bang reform” and that over time the state-controlled banks’ share will drop only gently, to 55-65% of the market.
A similar message is heard in Brazil. In the past five years Brazilian private banks have risen to global significance, helped by a frenetic 2007 and 2008 when an eighth of the system’s assets changed hands. Itaú bought Unibanco and Santander bought ABN AMRO’s Brazilian business.

But just as important has been the expansion of the state banks, Banco do Brasil (a listed commercial lender with a bias towards agriculture), Caixa Econômica Federal (a mortgage specialist) and BNDES (which acts more as an investment company). Together their share of the financial system’s assets has reversed its earlier decline and now stands at 42% (see chart 7). Part of their increase in market share reflects acquisitions, with Banco do Brasil buying Nossa Caixa, a mid-sized state-owned firm, in 2008 and a 50% stake in Votorantim, a car-finance specialist, in 2009. But about two-thirds of the rise has come from lending more than the private firms during the downturn.

That in turn has changed people’s views of a mixed financial system. Domingos Abreu, chief financial officer of Bradesco, says the state banks “had a very important role…in the government’s anticyclical policies”, adding that in a downturn “it makes a difference” to have a mixture of state, private and foreign banks. He concedes that two years ago he might have answered the question differently, but now he had to acknowledge that the state banks have their merits.

Alfredo Sáenz, chief executive of Santander, which owns the country’s third-biggest private lender, quips that Brazil keeps an “artistic equilibrium” between the private and the public sectors. Persio Arida, a former governor of the central bank and president of BNDES, and now a partner at BTG Pactual, Brazil’s leading independent investment bank, says that the “consensus” in the country is that the state banks played a vital role. However, he cautions that until the extent of bad debts created by their lending is known, no definitive judgment can be reached.

Russia holds the line

In Russia up to 54% of the system’s assets are state-controlled, according to Andrei Vernikov, an economist, compared with 45% in 2007. Foreign banks’ share stands at 18%. The balance-sheets of the three European banks that are most active in Russia, UniCredit, Raiffeisen International and Société Générale, together shrank by about a quarter in euro terms in 2009. Royal Bank of Scotland’s loans to Russian corporate customers dropped by 45% in sterling terms. Net loans at state-controlled Sberbank and VTB declined by only 4% and 10% respectively in local-currency terms. Last summer the government took a larger stake in VTB to bring its holding up to 86%. Andrew Keeley, an analyst at Troika Dialog, an investment bank, says that although the government is likely to sell the additional stake in VTB again, it intends to keep majority control of both big banks.

But none of this means that a Soviet-style banking system is about to emerge in any of these countries. In China the government did take control of credit during the crisis, but for other state banks it was more of a nudge and a wink. Mr Bhatt says he was left to his own devices. Most governments also want private-sector banks to raise the level of competition. Even in China the state accepts some innovative upstarts, such as China Merchants Bank, a mid-sized bank with diffuse ownership and no direct state control. And all emerging markets want some foreign banks in order to keep local firms on their toes.

So although the ratio of ingredients varies, the objective mostly seems to be a mix with a strong state presence. This is seen as more responsive to businesses, less vulnerable to flaky foreigners and more open to “soft” control by the state as it tries to manage the economic cycle. Western bankers see its merits too: HSBC’s Mr Geoghegan, a veteran of banking in Latin America, the Middle East and Asia, reckons that a healthy combination of foreign and local firms leaves foreign banks politically less exposed.

Control freaks

The problem for state banks is that they need to find a way of raising capital without diluting the government’s holding. Most state-controlled banks are listed because a quotation brings market discipline to managers and provides useful information about the performance of the bank. But governments seem determined to hold on to a stake of at least 51%. For example, Banco do Brasil, now the country’s largest lender by assets, announced plans to raise $5 billion earlier this year, but its objective remains the “maintenance of the government’s shareholding control”. Turkey is thinking about floating its largest lender, Ziraat Bank, but the state seems likely to retain control. It is the same story in China, says Bill Stacey, an analyst at Aviate Global, a brokerage firm. The government is happy to sell shares in banks but wants to keep a majority stake. Likewise, in Russia the state wants to retain control of the two biggest banks.
What happens when the state’s holding gets close to that crucial 50%? State Bank of India expects to receive a capital injection from the government this year. Its chairman, Mr Bhatt, says it is still an open question whether the state might breach the 50% threshold in the medium term, but even then it would seek to have a big enough stake to remain the dominant shareholder. Many governments are in better fiscal condition than India’s and have more scope to top up banks’ capital. 

Emerging-market banks’ hunger for capital used to ensure that they would ultimately be sold off to the market—or to foreigners. Not any more. So the prospect now is of a fast-growing, innovative banking industry that remains subject to conservative regulation and only gradual shifts in control. After the West’s experience with no-holds-barred banking, that may be a good idea. But for growth-starved Western banks desperate to do business in emerging markets it means they will find it even harder to get in. 

Thursday, September 29, 2011

Imploding Bubble Economies: Stephen Lendman





September 29, 2011
Imploding Bubble Economies
By Stephen Lendman

Imploding Bubble Economies - by Stephen Lendman


Major media downplay imploding economies.

Economic meltdown comes in stages. Recognition takes longer. Tout TV pundits stay in denial longest, calling crisis conditions a normal correction.

Reality suggests otherwise with US unemployment approaching 23%, home foreclosures multiplying, and poverty levels double or more official distorted numbers that artificially hold them down.

Longtime market expert and regular Progressive Radio News Hour guest Bob Chapman says Eurozone countries are collapsing.

They're "in a state of contagion with six of its sovereign members in serious financial trouble....The creators of the EU, euro zone, and ECB have a failing monstrosity on their hands," an out-of-control debt bomb.

"There is absolutely no way a financial crisis can be avoided," and it's already been unfolding since 2008. No combination of countries can bail out others in crisis "without destroying themselves. Can 21 nations find $4 to $6 trillion to bail out six?"

Impossible! "Fragile isn't the word for it. Neither is contagion. The operative (word) is abject failure," heading for collapse.

Economist David Rosenberg sees "imminent" Greek default. In mid-September, its one year treasury yield exceeded 100%, telling intrepid investors it already happened for those willing to buy worthless junk.

At a dismal 57.8 reading, University of Michigan consumer sentiment also spells trouble. 

In comparison, it was 70.3 in September 2008 when Lehman Bros. collapsed, 81.8 in September 2001 after 9/11, 97.4 in October 1998 after Long Term Capital Management faced imminent bankruptcy and Russia defaulted on its debt, and 89.3 in October 1987 when Wall Street had its largest ever one day decline (22.6%).

On September 16, Global Europe Anticipation Bulletin's (GEAB) latest economic update headlined, "Global systemic crisis - Fourth quarter 2011: Implosive fusion of global financial assets," saying:

Over many months, nearly $10 trillion and 15 trillion in "ghost assets....have gone up in smoke. The rest (and probably much more) will vanish in" Q 4.

GEAB sees a "perfect storm" coming "that will make the summer problems look like a slight sea breeze." Six elements, in fact, already are apparent:

(1) America's congressional "super committee" won't resolve budget austerity tensions.

(2) As a result, automatic cuts required will cause a political crisis. Moreover, this "automatic function (will) generate major disturbances in the functioning of the state system" because it amounts to executive and congressional abdication of decision-making authority.

(3) Other credit rating agencies will join S & P in downgrading US credit. Diversifying out of Treasuries will follow.

(4) Federal Reserve money printing can't go on forever. At some point, it'll have to resort to jawboning and market manipulation, but those tactics have short to intermediate-term shelf lives.

(5) America's debt will keep increasing dramatically "as tax revenues are already in the process of collapsing..."

(6) Like his 2009 jobs plan, Obama's new one won't work even if Congress approved it which it won't.

The combination of the above elements "will trigger (a) major financial shock," perhaps much greater than in 2008.

Financial expert and investor safety advocate Martin Weiss agrees, saying:

"We stand on the threshold of one of the most dramatic financial disasters of our lifetime."

Greece's imminent default "threaten(s) the largest economies in the history of civilization - the European Union and United States."

Financial analyst Claus Vogt believes growing numbers of German politicians and European central bankers realize "Greece is long past the point of no return."

It's bankrupt but hasn't said so. Soon enough others will. It's not a liquidity problem. It's a solvency crisis too far gone to fix. 

All the bailouts and quick fixes piled on more of them won't put Greece back together again. And behind it comes Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy. It's just a matter of time.

In fact, Greek default alone is more serious than Lehman's 2008 collapse that triggered market mayhem. It's because Western banking and its entire financial system never recovered, so is much more vulnerable to economic shocks now than then.

Even though G-7 countries promised to save weak ones, who'll save them when they fail? Who'll save America, especially Main Street mired in Depression with baked in the cake austerity assuring worse ahead, not better?

Already credit is tight. Expect further tightening with interbank lending freezing up at any price. Private credit markets also with small and intermediate size businesses as well as consumers unable to get loans.

As bad as conditions are now, expect worse ahead. It doesn't matter how much money is printed. Job markets have collapsed with no effective policy initiatives to revive them. Rhetorical promises substitute for meaningful initiatives to stimulate growth. They're not forthcoming so expect decline.

In America, virtually everything points down, including business and consumer sentiment, production, retail sales, employment, housing, credit, and growth.

Rosenberg compares today's credit contraction crisis to the 1930s and Japan in 1990 when its equity and real estate bubbles collapsed. Subsequent downturns were protracted. Recoveries were "fragile and soon aborted."

A major difference between conditions now and Japan then was its 20% saving rate that let households "hold together as housing, commercial construction, and capex (capital expenditures) collapsed."

In contrast, Americans are way over-leveraged enough to require years more needed to reduce it to normal levels. As a result, household purchasing power will be greatly restrained.

Pent-up discretionary demand is absent to reduce debt and interest payment burdens. Rosenberg calls it a "secular downsizing shift."

Moreover, despite zero interest rates, banks aren't lending and consumers aren't borrowing as they're up to their ears in debt. They need less, not more. As a result, it'll keep receding for years. It represents a generational semi-permanent shift, promising protracted negative or weak growth.

Rosenberg also calls it "the movie of (past decades) in reverse: savings growth (replacing) discretionary spending."

Frugality is in, frivolity out. From the early 1980s through 2007, debt surged, leaving household balance sheets way overstretched. 

Declining demand and supply of credit ahead has "profound implication for interest rates, inflation, economic growth and corporate earnings." 

The only positive is one day the pain will end. So far, it's nowhere in sight as economic contraction continues.

Expect angry Americans to react. Perhaps they'll replicate disruptive protests across Europe. 

Trends analyst Gerald Celente explains that when people lose everything and they have nothing else to lose, they lose it.

As America sinks deeper into Depression, perhaps that day of reckoning approaches. 

For long-suffering households, it can't come a moment too soon.

Stephen Lendman lives in Chicago.
Also visit his blog site at sjlendman.blogspot.com and listen to cutting-edge discussions with distinguished guests on the Progressive Radio News Hour on the Progressive Radio Network Thursdays at 10AM US Central time and Saturdays and Sundays at noon. All programs are archived for easy listening.

http://www.progressiveradionetwork.com/the-progressive-news-hour/ .